1 INTRODUCTION 27
1.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES 27
1.2 MARKET DEFINITION 28
TABLE 1 MARKET DEFINITION, BY PROPULSION 28
TABLE 2 MARKET DEFINITION, BY END USE 28
TABLE 3 MARKET DEFINITION, BY BATTERY TYPE 28
TABLE 4 MARKET DEFINITION, BY VEHICLE TYPE 29
TABLE 5 MARKET DEFINITION, BY COMPONENT 30
1.2.1 INCLUSIONS AND EXCLUSIONS 31
TABLE 6 INCLUSIONS AND EXCLUSIONS 31
1.3 STUDY SCOPE 33
FIGURE 1 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET SEGMENTATION 33
1.3.1 REGIONS COVERED 34
1.3.2 YEARS CONSIDERED 34
1.4 CURRENCY CONSIDERED 35
TABLE 7 USD EXCHANGE RATES 35
1.5 STAKEHOLDERS 35
1.6 SUMMARY OF CHANGES 36
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 37
2.1 RESEARCH DATA 37
FIGURE 2 RESEARCH DESIGN 37
FIGURE 3 RESEARCH DESIGN MODEL 38
2.1.1 SECONDARY DATA 39
2.1.1.1 Key data from secondary sources 39
2.1.1.2 List of secondary sources 40
2.1.2 PRIMARY DATA 41
2.1.2.1 Breakdown of primary interviews 41
2.1.2.2 List of primary interview participants 42
2.2 MARKET SIZE ESTIMATION 42
2.2.1 RECESSION IMPACT ANALYSIS 43
2.2.2 BOTTOM-UP APPROACH 43
FIGURE 4 BOTTOM-UP APPROACH 44
2.2.3 TOP-DOWN APPROACH 44
FIGURE 5 TOP-DOWN APPROACH 44
FIGURE 6 RESEARCH APPROACH 45
FIGURE 7 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET ESTIMATION NOTES 45
2.3 DATA TRIANGULATION 46
FIGURE 8 DATA TRIANGULATION 46
2.4 FACTOR ANALYSIS 47
2.4.1 FACTOR ANALYSIS FOR MARKET SIZING: DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDES 48
2.5 RESEARCH ASSUMPTIONS 49
2.6 RESEARCH LIMITATIONS 50
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 51
FIGURE 9 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET OVERVIEW 52
FIGURE 10 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024 VS. 2030 (USD MILLION) 53
FIGURE 11 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024 VS. 2030 (USD MILLION) 54
FIGURE 12 KEY PLAYERS IN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET 55
4 PREMIUM INSIGHTS 56
4.1 ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PLAYERS IN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET 56
FIGURE 13 INCREASING ADOPTION OF ZERO-EMISSION VEHICLES TO DRIVE MARKET 56
4.2 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE 56
FIGURE 14 BUSES & COACHES SEGMENT TO LEAD MARKET DURING FORECAST PERIOD 56
4.3 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY PROPULSION 57
FIGURE 15 BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLES SEGMENT TO DOMINATE DURING FORECAST PERIOD 57
4.4 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY TYPE 57
FIGURE 16 NMC BATTERIES SEGMENT TO HAVE LARGEST MARKET SHARE DURING FORECAST PERIOD 57
4.5 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY RANGE 58
FIGURE 17 LESS THAN 150 MILES SEGMENT TO LEAD MARKET DURING FORECAST PERIOD 58
4.6 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY CAPACITY 58
FIGURE 18 501-1,000 KWH SEGMENT TO REGISTER HIGHEST CAGR DURING FORECAST PERIOD 58
4.7 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER OUTPUT 59
FIGURE 19 ABOVE 250 KW SEGMENT TO GROW AT HIGHEST RATE DURING FORECAST PERIOD 59
4.8 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY END USE 59
FIGURE 20 LONG-HAUL TRANSPORTATION SEGMENT TO REGISTER HIGHEST CAGR DURING FORECAST PERIOD 59
4.9 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BODY CONSTRUCTION 60
FIGURE 21 INTEGRATED SEGMENT TO DISPLAY HIGHEST CAGR DURING FORECAST PERIOD 60
4.10 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION 60
FIGURE 22 ASIA PACIFIC TO LEAD MARKET DURING FORECAST PERIOD 60
5 MARKET OVERVIEW 61
5.1 INTRODUCTION 61
5.2 MARKET DYNAMICS 62
FIGURE 23 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET: DRIVERS, RESTRAINTS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CHALLENGES 62
5.2.1 DRIVERS 62
5.2.1.1 Decreasing cost of EV batteries 62
FIGURE 24 EV BATTERY PRICING, 2019–2025 63
5.2.1.2 Rising fossil fuel prices 64
FIGURE 25 AVERAGE GLOBAL PETROL PRICES 2001 VS. 2011 VS. 2023 64
FIGURE 26 OPERATING COST COMPARISON OF EVS AND ICE VEHICLES 65
5.2.1.3 Increasing demand for emission-free electric commercial vehicles in logistics industry 65
FIGURE 27 LIFE-CYCLE GHG EMISSIONS FOR 40-TON TRACTOR TRAILERS, 2021 VS. 2030 SCENARIOS 66
TABLE 8 PURCHASE ORDER/SUPPLY CONTRACT FOR ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 66
5.2.1.4 Government initiatives promoting electric commercial vehicle adoption 67
TABLE 9 GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS FOR ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SALES 67
TABLE 10 ZERO-EMISSION LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE POLICIES AND INCENTIVES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES 68
FIGURE 28 GLOBAL REGULATORY COMPARISON FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND CHARGERS 69
FIGURE 29 GLOBAL ELECTRIFICATION TARGETS 69
5.2.2 RESTRAINTS 70
5.2.2.1 High development costs 70
5.2.2.2 Concerns over battery safety 70
FIGURE 30 BATTERY SAFETY ARCHITECTURE 71
5.2.2.3 Insufficient EV charging infrastructure 71
TABLE 11 EV CHARGER DENSITY, 2022 72
FIGURE 31 PRIVATE, SEMI-PUBLIC, AND PUBLIC CHARGING OWNERSHIP 72
5.2.3 OPPORTUNITIES 73
5.2.3.1 New revenue pockets in North America and Northern Europe 73
TABLE 12 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODELS, BY COUNTRY 73
5.2.3.2 Development of wireless EV charging technology for on-the-go charging 74
FIGURE 32 FUNCTIONING OF WIRELESSLY CHARGED ELECTRIC BUSES 75
5.2.4 CHALLENGES 75
5.2.4.1 Limited battery capacity 75
TABLE 13 BATTERY CAPACITIES OF POPULAR ELECTRIC BUSES 76
FIGURE 33 TIME REQUIRED FOR DIFFERENT CHARGING TYPES 76
5.2.4.2 Low availability of lithium for EV batteries 77
FIGURE 34 GROWING DEMAND FOR LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES, 2010–2030 77
5.2.4.3 Insufficient grid infrastructure 77
FIGURE 35 GRID REQUIREMENT FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN GERMANY 78
5.3 PRICING ANALYSIS 78
5.3.1 AVERAGE SELLING PRICE TREND, BY VEHICLE TYPE 78
TABLE 14 ELECTRIC VANS: AVERAGE PRICE (USD), 2023 78
TABLE 15 ELECTRIC PICKUP TRUCKS: AVERAGE PRICE (USD), 2023 79
TABLE 16 ELECTRIC TRUCKS: AVERAGE PRICE (USD), 2023 79
TABLE 17 ELECTRIC BUSES: AVERAGE PRICE (USD), 2023 80
5.3.2 PRICING ANALYSIS, BY REGION 80
FIGURE 36 PRICING ANALYSIS, BY REGION 80
TABLE 18 ELECTRIC TRUCKS: AVERAGE PRICE COMPARISON, BY CLASS 81
5.4 POTENTIAL ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHES BY OEMS 81
TABLE 19 UPCOMING ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES, 2024–2026 81
5.5 BILL OF MATERIALS 82
FIGURE 37 BILL OF MATERIALS: ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (USD) 82
FIGURE 38 BILL OF MATERIALS: BATTERY VS. NON-BATTERY COMPONENTS (USD) 83
FIGURE 39 BILL OF MATERIALS: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET (USD) 84
5.6 OEM SOURCING STRATEGIES 85
5.6.1 SOURCING STRATEGIES BY ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE OEMS 85
FIGURE 40 OEM SOURCING STRATEGIES 85
5.6.2 OEM MOTOR RATING ANALYSIS, BY RANGE 86
FIGURE 41 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER RANGE (KW) 86
5.6.3 COMPETITIVE MARKET ASSESSMENT, BY PAYLOAD CAPACITY 87
FIGURE 42 MARKET COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT, BY PAYLOAD CAPACITY 87
FIGURE 43 CARGO DELIVERY VS. PAYLOAD CAPACITY 87
5.7 SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS 88
FIGURE 44 SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYSIS 88
5.8 ECOSYSTEM MAPPING 88
FIGURE 45 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET ECOSYSTEM 89
FIGURE 46 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET ECOSYSTEM MAP 89
5.8.1 EV CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDERS 90
5.8.2 COMPONENT MANUFACTURERS 90
5.8.3 TIER II SUPPLIERS 90
5.8.4 TIER I SUPPLIERS 90
5.8.5 RAW MATERIAL SUPPLIERS 90
5.8.6 OEMS 90
TABLE 20 ROLE OF COMPANIES IN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET ECOSYSTEM 91
5.9 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP 93
TABLE 21 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP, VEHICLE TYPE 93
5.9.1 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: DIESEL VS. ELECTRIC BUSES 93
FIGURE 47 COMPARISON OF TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: 12 M ELECTRIC BUSES VS. 12 M DIESEL BUSES 93
FIGURE 48 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP: FORD ELECTRIC TRANSIT VS. ICE TRANSIT 3.5 TONS MODELS 94
5.10 INSIGHTS ON ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 94
5.10.1 RANGE/BATTERY CAPACITY 94
TABLE 22 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES: RANGE VS. BATTERY CAPACITY 94
5.10.2 RANGE/END USE 95
TABLE 23 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES: RANGE VS. END USE 95
5.10.3 BATTERY CAPACITY/END USE 95
TABLE 24 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES: BATTERY CAPACITY VS. END USE 95
5.10.4 POWER/CHARGING DURATION 96
TABLE 25 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES: POWER VS. CHARGING DURATION 96
5.11 CASE STUDY ANALYSIS 97
5.11.1 ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT IN ELECTRIC BUSES 97
5.11.2 USER EXPERIENCE OF BATTERY-ELECTRIC TRUCKS IN NORWAY 97
5.11.3 ELECTRIC VEHICLE FLEETS FOR PUBLIC SECTOR IN VERMONT 98
5.12 INVESTMENT AND FUNDING SCENARIO 99
FIGURE 49 INVESTMENT AND FUNDING, 2021–2024 99
TABLE 26 LIST OF FUNDING, 2021–2023 99
5.13 PATENT ANALYSIS 100
5.13.1 INTRODUCTION 100
FIGURE 50 TRENDS OF PATENTS RECORDED, 2012–2023 100
5.13.2 LEGAL STATUS OF PATENTS, 2012–2023 101
FIGURE 51 LEGAL STATUS OF PATENTS, 2012–2023 101
5.13.3 TOP PATENT APPLICANTS, 2012–2023 101
FIGURE 52 TOP PATENT APPLICANTS, 2012–2023 101
TABLE 27 PATENT REGISTRATIONS RELATED TO ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, 2021–2023 102
5.14 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 104
5.14.1 FUTURE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW 105
FIGURE 53 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET: FUTURE TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICAL COMMERCIAL BUSES 105
5.14.2 OFFBOARD TOP-DOWN PANTOGRAPH CHARGING SYSTEMS 106
5.14.3 ONBOARD BOTTOM-UP PANTOGRAPH CHARGING SYSTEMS 106
5.14.4 GROUND-BASED STATIC/DYNAMIC WIRELESS CHARGING SYSTEMS 106
5.14.5 PACKAGED FUEL CELL SYSTEM MODULES 106
FIGURE 54 PACKAGED FUEL CELL SYSTEM MODULE OF TOYOTA 107
5.14.6 METHANE FUEL CELLS 107
5.14.7 SMART CHARGING SYSTEMS 107
FIGURE 55 SMART EV CHARGING SYSTEM 108
5.14.8 IOT IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES 108
5.14.9 SOLID-STATE BATTERIES 108
5.15 TRADE ANALYSIS 109
TABLE 28 IMPORT DATA FOR PRODUCTS UNDER HS CODE 8702, BY KEY COUNTRY, 2022 (USD MILLION) 109
TABLE 29 EXPORT DATA FOR PRODUCTS UNDER HS CODE 8702, BY KEY COUNTRY, 2022 (USD MILLION) 110
5.16 REGULATORY LANDSCAPE 110
5.16.1 COUNTRY-WISE REGULATIONS 110
5.16.1.1 Netherlands 110
TABLE 30 NETHERLANDS: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 111
TABLE 31 NETHERLANDS: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 111
5.16.1.2 Germany 111
TABLE 32 GERMANY: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 112
TABLE 33 GERMANY: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 112
5.16.1.3 France 112
TABLE 34 FRANCE: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 112
TABLE 35 FRANCE: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 113
5.16.1.4 UK 113
TABLE 36 UK: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 113
TABLE 37 UK: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 114
5.16.1.5 China 114
TABLE 38 CHINA: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 114
TABLE 39 CHINA: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 114
5.16.1.6 US 114
TABLE 40 US: ELECTRIC VEHICLE INCENTIVES 115
TABLE 41 US: EV CHARGING STATION INCENTIVES 115
5.16.2 REGULATORY BODIES, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 115
TABLE 42 ASIA PACIFIC: REGULATORY BODIES, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 115
TABLE 43 NORTH AMERICA: REGULATORY BODIES, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 116
TABLE 44 EUROPE: REGULATORY BODIES, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 118
TABLE 45 REST OF THE WORLD: REGULATORY BODIES, GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 119
5.17 KEY CONFERENCES AND EVENTS 119
TABLE 46 LIST OF KEY CONFERENCES AND EVENTS IN 2024 119
5.18 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND BUYING CRITERIA 120
5.18.1 KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN BUYING PROCESS 120
TABLE 47 INFLUENCE OF INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS ON BUYING PROCESS FOR ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 120
5.18.2 BUYING CRITERIA 120
FIGURE 56 KEY BUYING CRITERIA BY VEHICLE TYPES 121
5.19 TRENDS/DISRUPTIONS IMPACTING CUSTOMER BUSINESS 121
FIGURE 57 REVENUE SHIFT AND NEW REVENUE POCKETS FOR PLAYERS IN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET 121
6 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE 123
6.1 INTRODUCTION 124
FIGURE 58 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024 VS. 2030 (USD MILLION) 124
TABLE 48 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 124
TABLE 49 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 125
TABLE 50 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 125
TABLE 51 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 125
6.1.1 OPERATIONAL DATA 126
TABLE 52 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE, BY VEHICLE TYPE 126
6.2 PICKUP TRUCKS 127
6.2.1 INCREASED OFFERINGS FROM OEMS TO DRIVE MARKET 127
TABLE 53 PICKUP TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 127
TABLE 54 PICKUP TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 127
TABLE 55 PICKUP TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 128
TABLE 56 PICKUP TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 128
6.3 TRUCKS 128
6.3.1 DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC TRUCKS BY AUTOMOTIVE OEMS TO DRIVE MARKET 128
TABLE 57 TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 129
TABLE 58 TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 129
TABLE 59 TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 129
TABLE 60 TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 129
6.3.1.1 Medium-duty trucks 130
TABLE 61 MEDIUM-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 130
TABLE 62 MEDIUM-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 130
TABLE 63 MEDIUM-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 131
TABLE 64 MEDIUM-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 131
6.3.1.2 Heavy-duty trucks 131
TABLE 65 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 132
TABLE 66 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 132
TABLE 67 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 132
TABLE 68 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 132
6.4 VANS 133
6.4.1 BOOMING LOGISTICS INDUSTRY TO DRIVE MARKET 133
TABLE 69 VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 133
TABLE 70 VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 133
TABLE 71 VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 134
TABLE 72 VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 134
6.4.1.1 Light vans 134
TABLE 73 LIGHT VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 134
TABLE 74 LIGHT VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 135
TABLE 75 LIGHT VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 135
TABLE 76 LIGHT VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 135
6.4.1.2 Full-size vans 135
TABLE 77 FULL-SIZE VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 136
TABLE 78 FULL-SIZE VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 136
TABLE 79 FULL-SIZE VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 136
TABLE 80 FULL-SIZE VANS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 136
6.5 BUSES & COACHES 137
6.5.1 GROWING DEMAND FOR EMISSION-FREE PUBLIC TRANSPORT TO DRIVE MARKET 137
TABLE 81 BUSES & COACHES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 137
TABLE 82 BUSES & COACHES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 138
TABLE 83 BUSES & COACHES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 138
TABLE 84 BUSES & COACHES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 138
6.6 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 139
7 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY PROPULSION 140
7.1 INTRODUCTION 141
FIGURE 59 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY PROPULSION, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 141
TABLE 85 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY PROPULSION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 141
TABLE 86 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY PROPULSION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 142
7.1.1 OPERATIONAL DATA 142
TABLE 87 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODELS, BY PROPULSION TYPE 142
7.2 BEVS 143
7.2.1 ADVANCEMENTS IN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY TO DRIVE MARKET 143
TABLE 88 BEVS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 144
TABLE 89 BEVS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 144
7.3 FCEVS 144
7.3.1 ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS BY OEMS TO DRIVE MARKET 144
TABLE 90 FCEVS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 145
TABLE 91 FCEVS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 145
7.4 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 145
8 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY TYPE 146
8.1 INTRODUCTION 147
FIGURE 60 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY TYPE, 2024–2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 147
TABLE 92 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 147
TABLE 93 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 148
8.2 NMC BATTERIES 148
8.2.1 HIGH DENSITY AND COMPACT SIZE TO DRIVE MARKET 148
TABLE 94 NMC BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 148
TABLE 95 NMC BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 149
8.3 LFP BATTERIES 149
8.3.1 AFFORDABILITY AND SUPERIOR SAFETY TO DRIVE MARKET 149
TABLE 96 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODELS WITH LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES 150
TABLE 97 LFP BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 150
TABLE 98 LFP BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 150
8.4 SOLID-STATE BATTERIES 151
8.4.1 FAST RECHARGING CAPABILITIES TO DRIVE MARKET 151
TABLE 99 SOLID-STATE BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 151
TABLE 100 SOLID-STATE BATTERIES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 151
8.5 OTHERS 152
TABLE 101 OTHERS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 152
TABLE 102 OTHERS: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 152
8.6 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 152
9 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY CAPACITY 153
9.1 INTRODUCTION 154
FIGURE 61 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY CAPACITY, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 154
TABLE 103 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY CAPACITY, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 155
TABLE 104 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BATTERY CAPACITY, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 155
9.2 LESS THAN 60 KWH 156
9.2.1 INCREASING ADOPTION OF COMPACT ELECTRIC VANS FOR LOCAL TRANSPORTATION TO DRIVE MARKET 156
TABLE 105 LESS THAN 60 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 156
TABLE 106 LESS THAN 60 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 156
9.3 60–120 KWH 157
9.3.1 NORTH AMERICAN GOVERNMENT POLICIES FOR ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORTATION TO DRIVE MARKET 157
TABLE 107 60–120 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 157
TABLE 108 60–120 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 157
9.4 121–200 KWH 158
9.4.1 RISING ADOPTION OF ELECTRIFICATION IN TRANSPORT SECTOR TO DRIVE MARKET 158
TABLE 109 121–200 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 158
TABLE 110 121–200 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 158
9.5 201–300 KWH 159
9.5.1 IMPROVED DRIVING RANGE TO FUEL MARKET GROWTH 159
TABLE 111 201–300 KWH ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MODELS, BY OEMS 159
TABLE 112 201–300 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 159
TABLE 113 201–300 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 159
9.6 301–500 KWH 160
9.6.1 INCREASING PREFERENCE FOR LONG-HAUL ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES TO DRIVE MARKET 160
TABLE 114 301–500 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 160
TABLE 115 301–500 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 160
9.7 501–1,000 KWH 161
9.7.1 RISING E-COMMERCE AND RETAIL SECTORS TO DRIVE MARKET 161
TABLE 116 501–1,000 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 161
TABLE 117 501–1,000 KWH: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 161
9.8 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 162
10 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER OUTPUT 163
10.1 INTRODUCTION 164
FIGURE 62 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER OUTPUT, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 164
TABLE 118 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER OUTPUT, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 164
TABLE 119 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY POWER OUTPUT, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 165
10.2 LESS THAN 100 KW 165
10.2.1 GROWING ADOPTION OF ELECTRIC VANS FOR DELIVERIES BY LOGISTICS INDUSTRY TO DRIVE MARKET 165
TABLE 120 LESS THAN 100 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION 2019–2023 (UNITS) 165
TABLE 121 LESS THAN 100 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION 2024–2030 (UNITS) 166
10.3 100–250 KW 166
10.3.1 INCREASING DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC TRUCKS AND BUSES TO DRIVE MARKET 166
TABLE 122 100–250 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 166
TABLE 123 100–250 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 167
10.4 ABOVE 250 KW 167
10.4.1 INCREASING DEMAND FOR HIGH-POWERED ELECTRIC TRUCKS AND PICKUP TRUCKS TO DRIVE MARKET 167
TABLE 124 ABOVE 250 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 168
TABLE 125 ABOVE 250 KW: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 168
10.5 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 168
11 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY RANGE 169
11.1 INTRODUCTION 170
FIGURE 63 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY RANGE, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 170
TABLE 126 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY RANGE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 170
TABLE 127 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY RANGE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 170
11.2 LESS THAN 150 MILES 171
11.2.1 E-COMMERCE BOOM AND DELIVERY DEMANDS TO DRIVE MARKET 171
TABLE 128 LESS THAN 150 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 171
TABLE 129 LESS THAN 150 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 171
11.3 151–300 MILES 172
11.3.1 RISING DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC TRUCKS FROM TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY TO DRIVE MARKET 172
TABLE 130 151–300 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 172
TABLE 131 151–300 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 172
11.4 ABOVE 300 MILES 173
11.4.1 RISING ADOPTION OF ELECTRIC PICKUP TRUCKS TO DRIVE MARKET 173
TABLE 132 ABOVE 300 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 173
TABLE 133 ABOVE 300 MILES: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 173
11.5 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 174
12 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY END USE 175
12.1 INTRODUCTION 176
FIGURE 64 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY END USE, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 176
TABLE 134 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY END USE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 176
TABLE 135 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY END USE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 177
12.2 LAST-MILE DELIVERY 177
12.2.1 RISING DEMAND FOR VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION IN E-COMMERCE SECTOR TO DRIVE MARKET 177
12.3 FIELD SERVICES 177
12.3.1 RISING DEMAND FOR GREEN MOBILITY IN FIELD SERVICES SECTOR TO DRIVE MARKET 177
12.4 DISTRIBUTION SERVICES 178
12.4.1 INCREASING RELIANCE ON DELIVERY SERVICES TO FUEL MARKET EXPANSION 178
12.5 LONG-HAUL TRANSPORTATION 178
12.5.1 PUSH FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION TO DRIVE MARKET 178
12.6 REFUSE TRUCKS 179
12.6.1 GROWING PUBLIC AWARENESS ABOUT RESPONSIBLE WASTE COLLECTION TO DRIVE MARKET 179
12.7 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 179
13 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BODY CONSTRUCTION 180
13.1 INTRODUCTION 181
FIGURE 65 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BODY CONSTRUCTION, 2024 VS. 2030 (THOUSAND UNITS) 181
TABLE 136 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BODY CONSTRUCTION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 181
TABLE 137 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY BODY CONSTRUCTION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 182
13.2 INTEGRATED 182
13.2.1 REDUCED PRODUCTION COSTS TO DRIVE MARKET 182
13.3 SEMI-INTEGRATED 182
13.3.1 IMPROVED STRUCTURAL STRENGTH TO DRIVE MARKET 182
13.4 FULL-SIZED 183
13.4.1 SPACIOUS CARGO CAPACITY TO DRIVE MARKET 183
13.5 KEY INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 183
14 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY COMPONENT 184
14.1 INTRODUCTION 184
14.2 BATTERY PACKS 184
TABLE 138 PRODUCTS OFFERED BY BATTERY MANUFACTURERS 185
14.3 ONBOARD CHARGERS 185
TABLE 139 ONBOARD CHARGER MANUFACTURERS FOR ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 186
FIGURE 66 CONSTITUENTS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING SYSTEM 186
14.4 ELECTRIC MOTORS 186
TABLE 140 ELECTRIC TRUCK MODELS, BY ELECTRIC MOTOR TYPE 187
14.5 INVERTERS 187
TABLE 141 INVERTER MANUFACTURERS FOR ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 187
14.6 DC-DC CONVERTERS 188
FIGURE 67 DC-DC CONVERTER 188
14.7 FUEL-CELL STACKS 189
FIGURE 68 HYDROGEN FUEL CELL VEHICLE COMPONENTS 189
15 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION 190
15.1 INTRODUCTION 191
FIGURE 69 GLOBAL LIGHT ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE TARGETS 192
FIGURE 70 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024 VS. 2030 (USD MILLION) 192
FIGURE 71 TIMELINE OF ALL EXISTING AND UPCOMING REGULATIONS IN EUROPE, US, AND CHINA 193
TABLE 142 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 193
TABLE 143 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 193
TABLE 144 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 193
TABLE 145 ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY REGION, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 194
15.2 ASIA PACIFIC 195
15.2.1 RECESSION IMPACT ANALYSIS 195
FIGURE 72 ASIA PACIFIC: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET SNAPSHOT 196
TABLE 146 ASIA PACIFIC: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY COUNTRY, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 196
TABLE 147 ASIA PACIFIC: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY COUNTRY, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 197
TABLE 148 ASIA PACIFIC: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY COUNTRY, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 197
TABLE 149 ASIA PACIFIC: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY COUNTRY, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 197
15.2.2 CHINA 198
15.2.2.1 Predominance of leading players to drive market 198
TABLE 150 CHINA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 198
TABLE 151 CHINA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 198
TABLE 152 CHINA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 199
TABLE 153 CHINA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 199
15.2.3 JAPAN 200
15.2.3.1 Increased investments in automotive R&D to drive market 200
TABLE 154 JAPAN: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 200
TABLE 155 JAPAN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 200
TABLE 156 JAPAN: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 201
TABLE 157 JAPAN ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 201
15.2.4 INDIA 202
15.2.4.1 Expansion of major OEMs to support market growth 202
TABLE 158 INDIA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 202
TABLE 159 INDIA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 202
TABLE 160 INDIA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 203
TABLE 161 INDIA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 203
15.2.5 SOUTH KOREA 203
15.2.5.1 Rising demand for electric pickup trucks to drive market 203
TABLE 162 SOUTH KOREA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (UNITS) 204
TABLE 163 SOUTH KOREA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (UNITS) 204
TABLE 164 SOUTH KOREA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2019–2023 (USD MILLION) 204
TABLE 165 SOUTH KOREA: ELECTRIC COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET, BY VEHICLE TYPE, 2024–2030 (USD MILLION) 205
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